![]() ![]() The “next big task” is to update the data assimilation, Uccellini said. “We are catching up, I believe,” Uccellini said. The European model isn’t always right, but Uccellini admitted that they still have some work to do - even with the new update - and said that the model across the Atlantic is still “leading the pack.” The upgrades come as the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts’ model, or colloquially known in the weather community as “the Euro,” has fame for being more accurate than the American GFS (a little more detail can be found here). The increased height of the model’s domain would allow for better prediction of the stratospheric polar vortex, and latent heat release’s impacts on a weather system. The model’s improvements included upgraded model physics, and an increase in the vertical resolution of the model from its previous 55 kilometers to 80 kilometers (from 34 to 50 miles). The chief modeler said that the predictions with the recent snow storm in Colorado were better with the newer and now operational version compared to the older one. Tallapragada also noted improvements in the accuracy of lower-level temperatures as well as winter weather and rainfall predictions. There was also longer lead times as much as 36 hours, and reduced bias in the model. There was a 10% to 15% improvement in tropical cyclone track and intensity forecast, Tallapragada said. ![]() ![]() Vijay Tallapragada, the Chief of the Modeling and Data Assimilation Branch of NOAA’s Environmental Modeling Center, said in the media conference call. “The improvements are pretty significant with this upgrade,” Dr. ![]()
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